Votto in race for NL OBA title

by + on September 21, 2012

joeyvotto

* Cincinnati Reds 1B Joey Votto (Etobicoke, Ont.) could still win NL OBA title ….

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By Neil Munro

There is an interesting chase for a National League batting title that you can follow on a daily basis (as I do).

The on-base average is calculated as the number of times a player reaches base (via a hit, walk or hit by pitch) divided by the sum of his at bats, walks, hit by pitch, and sacrifice flies.

Right now the N.L. leader is San Francisco Giants Buster Posey at .410 with Pittsburgh Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen right behind him at .409.

Of course Joey Votto (Etobicoke, Ont.) is well ahead of all major leaguers in this category, now having 201 times reaching base in 426 appearances for aa .472 OBA. (He has no sacrifice bunts, so all of his plate appearances are counted in the divisor in determining his official OBA. figure.)

I am sure that you are aware of all of the details, but here is the official rule the regarding minimum requirements to be awarded an individual batting, on-base average of slugging title.

 

10.22 Minimum Standards For Individual Championships

To assure uniformity in establishing the batting, pitching and fielding championships of professional leagues, such champions shall meet the following minimum performance standards:

(a) The individual batting, slugging or on-base percentage champion shall be the player with the highest batting average, slugging percentage or on-base percentage, as the case may be, provided the player is credited with as many or more total appearances at the plate in league championship games as the number of games scheduled for each club in his club’s league that season, multiplied by 3.1 in the case of a Major League player and by 2.7 in the case of a National Association player. Total appearances at the plate shall include official times at bat, plus bases on balls, times hit by pitcher, sacrifice hits, sacrifice flies and times awarded first base because of interference or obstruction.

Notwithstanding the foregoing requirement of minimum appearances at the plate, any player with fewer than the required number of plate appearances whose average would be the highest, if he were charged with the required number of plate appearances shall be awarded the batting, slugging or on-base percentage championship, as the case may be.

Rule 10.22(a) Comment: For example, if a Major League schedules 162 games for each club, 502 plate appearances qualify (162 times 3.1 equals 502) a player for a batting, slugging or on-base percentage championship. If a National Association league schedules 140 games for each club, 378 plate appearances qualify (140 times 2.7 equals 378) a player for a batting, slugging or on-base percentage championship. Fractions of a plate appearance are to be rounded up or down to the closest whole number. For example, 162 times 3.1 equals 502.2, which is rounded down to a requirement of 502.

If, for example, Abel has the highest batting average among those with 502 plate appearance in a Major League with a .362 batting average (181 hits in 500 at-bats), and Baker has 490 plate appearances, 440 at-bats and 165 hits for a .375 batting average, Baker shall be the batting champion, because adding 12 more at-bats to Baker’s record would still give Baker a higher batting average than Abel: .365 (165 hits in 452 at-bats) to Abel’s .362

 

Right now, Votto is about 40 plate appearances short of being listed as the current N.L. OBA. leader. With 12 games left on the Reds schedule, he will certainly fall well short of the necessary 502 appearances. He would finish with about 480 appearances if he played in all of the Reds remaining games, but he is sure to be given some rest in preparation for the playoffs. When the extra (hitless) at bats are added to Votto’s likely totals, we see that he has a very good chance to still win the 2012 On-base Average title, because he has such a commanding lead over the other contenders.

 

I have attached an Excel sheet with a graph that indicates the number of times Votto must reach base to pass the other players (all of whom already have at least 502 appearances) for this title. The chart shows that if Votto can reach base 13 more times in the remaining Reds’ games, he is almost certain to be declared the official OBA champion of the National League for 2012. If he does win this title, it would be his third straight in this category. (Ignore all of the numbers on the left side of the Excel sheet – they are just used to generate the graph.)

I will be watching the Reds’ boxscores on a daily basis and recording my own countdown towards his possible OBA. title.

200 .398 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
201 .400 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
202 .402 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
203 .404 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
204 .406 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
205 .408 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
206 .410 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
207 .412 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
208 .414 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
209 .416 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
210 .418 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
211 .420 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
212 .422 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
213 .424 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
214 .426 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
215 .428 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
216 .430 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
217 .432 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
218 .434 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
219 .436 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
220 .438 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
221 .440 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
222 .442 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
223 .444 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
224 .446 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42
225 .448 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42

Neil Munro
Neil is a retired secondary school mathematics teacher with a life-long passion for the collection and analysis of baseball statistics. A North Bay Ontario resident for almost 50 years, Neil has fuelled his interest by serving as a research consultant with STATS Inc. He was the former chair of the Records Committee of SABR – the Society for American Baseball Research.

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