Shushkewich: Should the Blue Jays pursue O'Neill?
It appears that St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill (Maple Ridge, B.C.) is on the trade block this offseason.
December 6, 2023
By Tyson Shushkewich
Canadian Baseball Network
With the Winter Meetings in full swing and the rumour mill churning at an all-time high awaiting the news on where Shohei Ohtani will sign, one Canadian outfielder is getting caught in the crossfire and could be on the way out of St. Louis this winter.
Tyler O’Neill (Maple Ridge, B.C.) is no stranger to hearing his name on the trade block, as the St. Louis Cardinals have flirted with a potential movement of the former third-round pick dating back to last offseason. Stacked with a loaded core boasting Lars Nootbar, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, and former top prospect Jordan Walker, the Cardinals can add to their roster by dealing from a position of strength in their outfield to aid in other areas such as the starting rotation.
This was further confirmed by Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak earlier this week.
“We feel like getting [O’Neill] everyday at-bats is going to be really difficult, given our outfield and with the way we predict it will line up… when you're looking at exploring the trade market, we could ignore it and not say his name, but I mean, it's coming to the point where it's kind of obvious,” Mozeliak told MLB.com.
With the Cardinals seemingly moving full steam ahead with Nootbar, Carlson, Edman, and Walker, O’Neill is on the outside looking in, and looking at the trade market (and recent history), the Toronto Blue Jays are one team to keep an eye on for outfield help and a potential trade connection.
The Blue Jays fell short of their postseason aspirations this past season and also have a lot of holes in the lineup with Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Belt, and Whit Merrifield all heading to free agency this winter. While the Jays are currently tied up with the courtship in luring Ohtani to play North of the border, with Kiermaier likely not returning and a rather weak depth of outfielders internally, there will come a point where general manager Ross Atkins will need to look for some outfield assistance. Who better to turn to than an old pal in the Cardinals?
Last season, the Blue Jays and Cardinals linked up for three separate trades just before the trade deadline, with Toronto acquiring LHP Génesis Cabrera, RHP Jordan Hicks, and SS Paul DeJong while sending a bevy of prospects to the Cardinals, which included top-ranked pitchers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. With those trades working well for both parties (even with Toronto falling short of a postseason win), going back to the well may be another move to consider for both parties.
In O’Neill, the Blue Jays would be getting a right-handed bat that boasts plus speed and can handle left field, which bodes well considering all signs are pointing to Daulton Varsho getting the bulk of the work in centre field this upcoming season and beyond. A defensive-minded outfielder that owns a career 25 DRS in left field, O’Neill fits the mould well of what the Jays are looking for:
A player that is not a limitation on the field
A power bat that can fit anywhere in the lineup
Base stealing threat
Since making his big league debut in 2018, O’Neill has had 1,464 at bats and owns a career .248/.318/.458 slash line with 78 home runs, 217 RBIs, and a .776 OPS and a 10 bWAR through 477 games. While a back and foot injury limited him to just 72 games last season, the Langley Blaze alum still put forward a 94 OPS+, a shade below his career 112 value while walking at a 10.5% clip and owning a .284 BAbip and a 97 wRC+ on the year.
The biggest concern when trading for O’Neill is his injury history, as the righty-batter has only spent one full season without hitting the IL since making the majors and that was during the shortened 2020 season. Separate injuries to his ankle, elbow, groin, shoulder, wrist, back, and finger have seen him suit up in no more than 138 games dating back to 2021. Factor in that O’Neill is in his last season of arbitration before hitting free agency and there is considerable risk in acquiring the Canadian-born outfielder and his ability to play a full campaign in a year where the Blue Jays are looking to advance out of the Wild Card.
The Blue Jays were able to platoon Kiermaier (who has a spotty injury history as well) last season with Varsho and Merrifield to limit the impact on the former Rays outfielder but without another veteran to harbour some of the load with both Kiermaier and Merrifield free agents, the Blue Jays could be in a tricky spot if O’Neill finds himself on the IL early in 2023 should they acquire him.
Even with the track history, the Blue Jays need some thunder in their lineup after hitting just 188 home runs (16th) and amassing a .417 SLG (13th) and when healthy, O’Neill can provide just that, belting 34 home runs during the 2021 campaign alone. He also impressed at the World Baseball Classic early in the year, authoring a 1.491 OPS while going 8-for-13 at the plate with two doubles and four RBIs.
The Blue Jays would also benefit from his plus speed, as the lineup will likely lose some base stealers in Merrifield and Kiermaier this winter. There is also the Canadian factor, as Blue Jays fans have a certain respect and passion for seeing players born North of the border donning the blue jerseys, one that makes good for any hometown story.
Another hold-up in a potential deal is what the Cardinals are looking for in return, which appears to be pitching (specifically starters). The one area the Blue Jays don’t possess a great amount of depth in outside of the active roster is starting pitching.
The Blue Jays' depth does include the likes of Bowden Francis, Wes Parsons, and Mitch White in whom they could deal but outside of Francis, it is unlikely Parsons or White alone will get a deal done. Prospect pitching-wise, the Blue Jays have a few names high on the prospect list (Ricky Tiedemann and Brandon Barriera) but given O’Neill’s injury history and incoming free-agent window, these two top prospects are not going the other way anytime soon for just the outfielder. Should the Cardinals be inclined to look outside of the rotation, some names like Brendon Little, Nate Pearson, and Hagen Danner could also get the ball rolling from a relief perspective or potentially another prospect in the high minor league rankings should St. Louis so choose.
Anything can happen in the offseason but given the recent remarks from the top brass in St. Louis, B.C.’s Tyler O’Neill is likely on the move this winter. While a hometown connection with the Blue Jays could be on the horizon given outfield need and recent trade history, there is some risk to the deal if O’Neill struggles to stay healthy in a year where the Blue Jays need a postseason win as badly as ever.