108: Blue Jays (2015) offence returns in (2016) postseason
Led by Josh Donaldson's .500 average over four playoff games, the offence that made opposing pitchers shudder in 2015 is back. (Photo: Alex Gallardo/AP)
14 Oct. 2016
By Tyler King
Canadian Baseball Network
With two walk-off wins in four playoff games, and an American League Championship Series just hours away, it’s hard for Jays fans not to feel a little hopeful (if not completely spoiled).
That gaping 22-year postseason drought almost seems forgotten. The “we’ve paid our dues” mentality that pervaded Toronto fans during last year’s postseason has instead been replaced with the empowering reality of back-to-back ALCS appearances.
The 27 runs the Jays have scored in their four postseason contests surely doesn’t hurt the ol’ confidence either - and actually kind of makes this whole thing seem a tad bit surreal, no?
After-all, isn’t this the same underachieving Blue Jays offence that baffled fans throughout most of 2016, seeing as they essentially made a mockery of the entire league the year previous?
And how is it that a team that was 12th in the American League in batting average and fifth in runs-scored is now leading the playoffs in both categories?
I mean, less than 10 days ago the Rogers Centre faithful were biting their nails and praying to everything that the six-month season wouldn’t end with the totally unforgiving Wild Card game; nine innings of life and death baseball after a long half-a-year’s worth of, well, life and death baseball.
But now, dare I say it, a birth in the World Series feels almost expected. And if the offence keeps up the pace they’ve set so far in October, I would bet my vital organs that they do in fact make it to that promised land ...
You just can’t shake the feeling that the Blue Jays are supposed to win this series. Although, to be fair, when have the baseball gods ever cared about supposing?
(Just ask Rougned Odor and the Texas Rangers ... and every single so-called expert who picked them.)
The fact that the Jays offence has suddenly sprung to life is what makes this upcoming series both so promising, and yet so very intriguing.
Whether it’s possible for the Jays hitters to sustain their prolific playoff production has been a point of contention since their 10-run outburst in Game 1 of the Division Series. Scoring 12 runs in their next two games may have been comforting, but it still leaves one wondering, Which offence is going to show up when they take Progressive Field after their four-day layoff?
In order to simplify things, you could actually phrase the question this way:
Will it be the 2015 version of the Blue Jays offence, or the 2016 one?
***
There’s no doubt the Jays bats have been stupid scary in October. But don’t think for a second that this “outburst” is entirely unprecedented (let alone unexpected).
So far in the postseason, Blue Jays hitters have slashed an impressive .260/.329/.534 with an .863 OPS. Oh, and their 10 home runs double the five hit by Cleveland, the Chicago Cubs, and the Los Angeles Dodgers - the next closest teams.
On one hand that might seem like a bit of an overachievement when compared to the paltry .248/.330/.426 and .755 OPS they managed during the regular season.
Yet on the other hand, if you compare their current playoff numbers with the offensive production from 2015, there should be nothing at all surprising about the last two weeks.
The Jays hit .269 throughout the 2015 campaign - nine points better than this current playoff run - and had a marginally better on-base percentage. They also scored 891 runs a year ago, averaging 5.5 runs per game.
(That isn’t quite as ridiculous as the 6.75 runs per game they’ve averaged in their four playoff contests, but still ridiculous nonetheless.)
With only two major lineup swaps from 2015 - those of course being a healthy(ish) Devon Travis and a healthy(er) Michael Saunders - this postseason could actually be viewed more as a return to the norm, rather than a departure from it.
The Jays have also been able to drop their strikeout rate to something not so eye-gougingly horrible as in the 2016 regular season. The Jays had the fourth most strikeouts in the AL with 1,362 (over 200 more than last year), but they have the second fewest strikeouts in the playoffs (29) out of all division-series teams.
They’ve struck-out one less time than Cleveland (who have played one less game) and 22 times less than the Washington Nationals (who have played the exact same amount of games).
The Jays 2.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio is by far the best in the postseason, and looks oddly - and encouragingly - similar the 2.02 ratio they managed in 2015.
But before you start raising an eyebrow and wondering, “Could this offence get even better?” it’s important to note this one sobering fact:
Their .478 average with runners in scoring position in the postseason is likely (really) unsustainable.
The good news is, Cleveland’s .438 average with RISP is just as unlikely to continue. This is especially true when you consider they’ll have to go up against the Blue Jays pitchers, who have held opponents to .179 average and 2.77 ERA in the playoffs.
So, yes, in the wise-words of Josh Donaldson (and every Jays fan over the past two-weeks):
“We like our team, Barry.”
***