108: Despite offensive struggles, ALCS was much closer than it felt

Despite the Jays bats going ice-cold in the ALCS, Cleveland's offence was almost as disappointing. (photo: Matt Slocum/AP)

By Tyler King

Canadian Baseball Network

If you’re a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays, hearing this probably won’t help.

The wound of coming only oh-so-close to the World Series is still too fresh, and, much like the gash on Trevor Bauer’s finger, still too deep.

But despite losing to Cleveland in five games - thanks to a disappearing act by the Jays bats that would have made the great Houdini blush - the series was actually much closer than any headline or series recap would have you believe.

No, this series wasn’t a case of one team playing a whole lot better than the other. 

Rather, at least as the offence was concerned, it was just one team playing slightly worse.

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By now you’ve probably realized Wednesday’s game wasn’t a bad dream (although with how nightmarishly confusing the Jays’ offensive numbers were all playoffs, you’d be excused from experiencing a few weeks of convulsing night terrors).

But in case you still need a pinch, let it sink in ...

The Jays were actually shutout for the second time in the ALCS on Wednesday, and thus eliminated from the postseason.

(If you’re still reading then I can only assume you haven’t thrown your computer or phone through the window, so congratulations. You’re clearly on the road to recovery.)

Perhaps what makes this whole thing so difficult to comprehend is not that the Jays lost, but how the Jays lost. Or, in other words, how did Cleveland - a team that scored only 12 runs all series - win?

I mean, if you looked strictly at the statistics without knowing any results, there’s no way you could predict which of the two teams was advancing to the World Series.

In their five ALCS games, the Jays hit .201 /. 251 / .283. If someone told you last week that was going to be the extent of their offensive output, you might think surviving to five games would have been a stretch.

But then again if someone told you the Cleveland Indians would end up hitting .168 / .215 / .329 in the series and would be out-hit by the the Blue Jays 32-25 (which is exactly what happened), even the most cautious gambler wouldn’t have been able to resist throwing a couple grand on “Jays-in-four”.

So, logically, the question that follows is:  “What the hell happened?”

With a 2.30 team ERA and an opponents batting average that was 33 points lower than Cleveland’s, it certainly wasn’t for a lack of pitching. 

(I repeat: “WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?”)

I’m sure you’ve heard all the ramblings about “timely hitting” over the past several days, particularly how it had plagued the Jays and ultimately cost them the series?

Toronto hit just .120 / .207 / .160 with runners in scoring position, the unsightliness of which makes me want to spray window cleaner in my eyes.

But again, somewhat remarkably, this is not where the series was won or lost. With runners in scoring position Cleveland was hardly any better. They hit just .143 / .143 / .190. 

Yet despite both teams being offensively awful, there were some key differences - meaning there were some ways that the Jays were a bit more awful.

For instance, the Jays struck out a soul-sucking 50 times in the series. That’s a five with a zero after it ... (half of 100 ... 2 x 25 ...)

After having the fewest strikeouts in the first round, the Jays now have the most K’s of all playoff teams heading into Thursday.

The Jays strikeout rate, however, had been ringing alarm bells all season long. They averaged 8.4 strikeouts per game in the regular season, fifth most in the American League. At the beginning of August they even set a new MLB record for most strikeouts in a four-game series when they struck-out 61 times against the Houston Astros. 

(Just how bad is that? According to thescore.com, the previous record of 58 strikeouts had held since 1913.)

But the Jays had been winning in spite of their prolific strikeout-rate for much of the year, hence why most fans were willing to just plug their ears and look the other way. In fact, they took three of the four games in that Houston series, even en route to setting that unfortunate record.

In the ALCS, however, those old bad-habits were much more glaring.

It certainly didn’t help that their biggest asset - their ever-present home run threat - deserted them when they needed it most. Cleveland out-homered the Jays in the series 6-2, a stat that - given Cleveland’s style of play - would have made you a rich man had you taken that bet a week ago.

That the Jays live and die by the long-ball is well known, and had been reiterated by manager John Gibbons throughout the postseason. Unfortunately for the Jays, the “death” part of that statement proved rather prophetic.

The Jays averaged nearly 1.4 home runs per game in the regular season and hit eight long balls in their three division series games. But they could only manage two home runs over the entire ALCS (the same total they hit in their one do-or-die Wild Card game against Baltimore).

Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin - three of the team's four big power bats - all went homerless, and the lack of production from the middle of the order was one of the postseason’s most obvious (and enraging) issues

The Jays hit just .129 from the four-spot in the lineup and .059 from the five-spot during the playoffs (managing only six hits).

On the other hand, Cleveland stole the page out of Toronto’s playbook in this series, as their home runs were not only more numerous but they were also incredibly opportunistic; four of their six homers were hit when the game was tied. During the regular season, Toronto had the most home runs in the league when the score was even.

So whether it was the “circumstances”, Andrew Miller being a complete freak of nature, or the swing-for-the-moon mentality of nearly every Jays hitter, one thing remains clear:

The better offensive team didn’t win. 

The slightly less worse one did.

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Follow Tyler and #Section108 on Twitter: @TylerJoseph108