Casaletto: Blue Jays take a worthy gamble on Shoemaker
The Toronto Blue Jays signed right-hander Matt Shoemaker to a one-year deal on Friday.
By Lucas Casaletto
Canadian Baseball Network
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim weren’t sure what it was getting when the front office signed right-hander Matt Shoemaker as an undrafted free agent out of Eastern Michigan in 2008.
Shoemaker, who pitched as a closer in college, transitioned to a starter a few years into his professional career. After a very brief cup of coffee in 2013, Shoemaker impressed enough in spring training to earn a spot in the majors as a long reliever the following year. Injuries to rotation regulars Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs forced then-manager Mike Scioscia to give Shoemaker a chance, and as a 27-year-old rookie, he never looked back.
Shoemaker finished his first full season in the majors with an Angels’ record for most wins by a rookie pitcher (16) and 124 strikeouts in 136 innings. His walk rate of 1.6 BB/9 also ranked first among Angels starters.
“When he’s on that mound he (Shoemaker) thinks he’s Nolan Ryan,” Scioscia told the Los Angeles Times in late 2014. “Shoe is just getting an opportunity, and he’s making the most of it.”
The unpredictability of what Shoemaker went on to accomplish is what makes baseball so fun. Unfortunately, there’s a cruel side to the game.
To date, injuries have played a significant part in Shoemaker’s career. The right-hander has dealt with ongoing forearm issues since making his stamp in the majors. The ailment was ostensibly rectified this past season after consecutive trips to the disabled list when Shoemaker underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in the forearm. Before all of this, though, Shoemaker was dealt what appeared to be a career-threatening blow.
In a game on Sept. 4, 2016, Shoemaker was drilled by a line drive off the bat of Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager. He was later diagnosed with a fractured skull and a concussion and was forced to undergo emergency surgery to stop bleeding on his brain. It ended his season.
“I like going out there and telling people my story: the fight, the hard work, all that stuff mixed together. Talking to people about it gives them the idea that, if it’s baseball or anything, whatever it is, just, please, work hard,” Shoemaker told the Los Angeles Times in a separate interview in 2017 when he was on his way back from the comebacker that almost ended his life.
“I know how easily it could have been different, and that’s why I’m so thankful to God,” Shoemaker added. “He had his hand on me that day, seriously.”
Shoemaker made his triumphant return to the mound in March of this year. Unfortunately, it was brief. The forearm discomfort was back, forcing Shoemaker to the disabled list once again. He underwent surgery in late May and made his way back to the Angels in September. He was non-tendered by the Angels and elected free agency in November, which put an end to his long stint with the only team and organization he’s ever known.
Though his future in the majors was once in doubt, the right-hander is going to get another chance; this time, north of the border. The Toronto Blue Jays and Shoemaker agreed to a one-year, $3.5-million contract on Friday, giving both sides an excellent opportunity to bank on one another. Much like when the Angels signed Shoemaker in 2008, the Blue Jays aren’t exactly sure what it will be getting when he puts on a new uniform in 2019. One thing is for sure, though: They’re more than willing to find out.
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The Blue Jays are one of many teams with a desperate need for pitching. Behind Marcus Stroman, who continues to be surrounded by conflicting trade rumors, and the often-injured Aaron Sanchez, the only pitcher with more than one year of major-league experience currently on the depth chart is Sam Gaviglio.
For that reason, Shoemaker makes a lot of sense for the Blue Jays. There are some other factors, too. If healthy, he represents the type of starting pitcher the team so desperately lacked for most of 2018. Furthermore, if Stroman and Sanchez make it through the offseason and get back to their old ways, suddenly, new manager Charlie Montoyo has three above-average pitchers at his disposal. That’s a lot to ask right now, however.
When Shoemaker has been on the mound, the results have been quite good. From 2014 to 2016, the 32-year-old pitched to a 3.80 ERA (3.77 FIP) with 8.0 K/9 and a terrific 1.9 BB/9 in 71 starts. During his tenure in Los Angeles with the Angels, former teammate Garrett Richards and Shoemaker were, by far, the club’s two best starters.
Shoemaker has relied on four pitches since breaking into the majors: a fastball, splitter, sinker, and slider. He also rarely utilizes a cutter. Of his repertoire, his relies primarily on his fastball and splitter. That’s where Shoemaker carries a lot of intrigue and upside.
Shoemaker’s splitter is by far his best pitch and the one that generates the most swing and misses. His splitter saw a drastic uptick in usage starting in 2016, which happened to be his healthiest season in the majors (160 innings pitched and 27 starts). He would finish that campaign with 143 strikeouts (8.0 K/9), and his splitter was a big factor, generating a whiff percentage of 21.3 per BIP (Balls in Play). The pitch also happens to be a worm killer as Shoemaker’s splitter was behind a groundball rate of 53.6 and 51.5 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
What gets Shoemaker into home run trouble is his fastball. From 2014 to 2018, his fastball has carried with it a flyball percentage of 35.1 per BIP. Throughout his career, Shoemaker’s fastball has resulted in a home run on 20 occasions, with opposing batters carrying a .273 batting average against the pitch. Conversely, his splitter, though responsible for 23 home runs allowed, has been used a lot more and is the subject of 273 of his career strikeouts in comparison to 76 strikeouts with the fastball.
The reason for showcasing these numbers is quite simple. When Shoemaker utilizes his offspeed pitches, specifically his brilliant splitter, he tends to have more on-field success and therefore, better results. Presumably, the Blue Jays are aware of something along these lines, which could be one of the many underlying factors behind the decision to sign the right-hander.
Of course, this isn’t the end all to Shoemaker as a pitcher. He’s had his struggles and bouts of inconsistency just like any other starter. His pitch location needs to be better, especially when he appears in the home-run-friendly compounds of the Rogers Centre. But the 32-year-old is as good a bounce-back candidate as there is, and since he was one of the few pitchers available with some upside, Shoemaker could be quite the reward.
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On the surface, Shoemaker is a nice addition, and at only $3.5 million, has the potential to be one of the best bargains when all is said and done. Of course, his health will be essential, but the front office has several options with him moving forward.
If Shoemaker misses more time this coming season or struggles, the Blue Jays can reassess at a later date, as Shoemaker will be under team control until 2020 due to his service time, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. That means if Shoemaker performs well, the Blue Jays can decide to trade him for a good return at or before the deadline, or, they can hold onto him in hopes that he duplicates the success in 2020; a year in which the Blue Jays should be in a slightly better position to win.
An addition such as Shoemaker is what the Blue Jays needed, in that he’s capable of being an above-average asset at a reasonable price. Much like other risk-free moves in the past, Shoemaker is someone that can be a difference maker when everything clicks. That’s the best-case scenario for a rebuilding team, as well as an ideal end-result for an injury-plagued pitcher that made his major-league debut just shy of 27 years old.
Statistics courtesy of: Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball and Baseball Reference