Casaletto: The Blue Jays have the money, how will they spend it?

Signing free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna would give the Toronto Blue Jays’ offence a lift in 2020.

November 15, 2019

By Lucas Casaletto

Canadian Baseball Network

Out with the old and in with the new.

Gone are the days of Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista. The remnants of a once-dominant lineup are nothing but a distant memory.

Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez. Familiar faces, fan favorites, and clubhouse darlings of which none remain.

You would be hard-pressed not to see one of these names on the backs of fans jerseys, clamoring inside the Rogers Centre. In small doses, though, you begin to see the new wave. Guerrero Jr. and Bichette sprinkled with a Biggio jersey or two.

The Blue Jays find themselves in an envious position this offseason. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk are the only two players on the roster under contract, with the newly acquired Chase Anderson set to make $8.5 million in 2020. After that, closer Ken Giles projects to earn the most in arbitration, and he’s more likely to be traded in the coming months.

In factoring the remaining $14 million that the Blue Jays will retain of Troy Tulowitzki’s contract, the front office has roughly $38 million committed to its payroll as things stand. Safely assuming, of course, the Blue Jays resign and or acquire arbitration-eligible players, there will be a lot of financial flexibility. Toronto entered last season with a payroll just north of $114 million, and with Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins indicating early on that they intend on being more aggressive than in years past, that number will rise heading into the new year.

There are several intriguing possibilities with the makeup of the team’s roster. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen, and Reese McGuire are all young pieces 25-or-under with upside. Despite being the subject of trade speculation, Gurriel is 26 and coming off a good year, and though the starting rotation is far from a finished product, top prospect Nate Pearson is tentatively slated to make his major-league debut sometime in 2020. The Blue Jays need pitching. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office try and sign or acquire at least two reliable starters (Jake Odorizzi is now off the market after accepting the Twins qualifying offer). But there are still holes to fill on the diamond.

Justin Smoak is a free agent and already generating interest from contending - and rebuilding clubs. That means you’re likely to see a new face manning first base this season. Rowdy Tellez simply didn’t do enough to secure the starting job, though he will still be in the mix.

There’s also a lot to be said about the outfield. Grichuk is locked into right but there is still very much a need in centre, even with Teoscar Hernandez slotted there on the depth chart. Gurriel is the favorite for left field right now, and there’s still Derek Fisher, Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford, and Jonathan Davis on the 40-man roster. That’s too many bodies, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some movement. Another possibility could see the Blue Jays trading from an area of depth and parting ways with one of Jansen or McGuire. Both played well for the Blue Jays this past season, with Jansen (1.4 fWAR) earning a Gold Glove nomination, and McGuire slashing .299/.346/.526 (1.2 fWAR) in 30 games. Keeping both still seems likely but if the Blue Jays can find value for either one, anything is possible.

The Blue Jays should be active in the coming weeks both on the pitching front and for upgrades to the lineup. Here are a few options the front office could look at in hopes of improving a team in need of some stability.

Former Toronto Blue Jay Eric Thames has put up offensive numbers comparable to Justin Smoak over the past three seasons. Photo: David Bernacchi

1B/OF - Eric Thames

Age: 33

Salary: $6 million

Draft pick compensation: No

Moving on from Smoak to Thames, a one-time Blue Jay, may strike some as counterproductive, but there is a strong argument to make that the former Brewers slugger could provide the Blue Jays with sneaky value and flexibility.

As highlighted in this graph, Thames and Smoak have produced almost identical numbers in terms of wOBA. Thames finished with a better slugging percentage in 2018 and 2019, with Smoak carrying the advantage in 2017, and since Thames’ first year with Milwaukee, he’s combined to a 118 wRC+ compared to Smoak (120 wRC+).

While Smoak’s batted ball stats remain promising, Thames has maintained intriguing exit velocity and launch angles. Truth be told, Smoak and Thames are a lot alike. Both hit the ball hard, rack up decent home run totals, get on base at a decent clip, and have the ability to hit from the left side. Thames can play the outfield in a pinch, despite his age, and runs better than Smoak. This would also give Tellez a chance to learn the ropes and perhaps even spend a little more time in Buffalo.

If the Blue Jays want a risk-free replacement for their longtime first baseman, Thames appears to be that guy. How cool would it be to see Thames return to the team and city that drafted him, only to mash hitting out of the Rogers Centre.

Free agent Mike Moustakas socked 35 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2019. Photo: Getty Images

3B/1B - Mike Moustakas

Age: 31

2019 salary: $7 million

Draft pick compensation: No

“Moose” has been a victim of the stagnant free-agent market, failing to lock down a long-term contract. The stalemate lasted deep into the winter until Moustakas settled on a return to Milwaukee, signing a one-year deal. Now, Moose may very well be headed towards the multi-year commitment he’s been seeking.

Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson both play third base and should generate interest in the early going, which could affect Moustakas this winter. Whichever club misses out on Rendon could very well make a play for Donaldson and there are rumblings that Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant is a candidate to be moved, as well. If interest in Moustakas dries up, the Blue Jays could find themselves in an enviable position.

Moose is coming off a good year in which he finished with a career-high .845 OPS and second on the Brewers behind 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich with 3.2 fWAR and 35 home runs. Advanced metrics back Moustakas, as well (.349 xwOBA and hard-hit percentage of 40.7).

The Blue Jays certainly have the money to offer Moustakas and might be willing to present him with a multi-year deal, if they so choose. He could spell Guerrero at third base and play a ton of first; something he started doing more of in 2019 with the Brewers.

The Blue Jays can offer Moustakas a chance to further the rebuild along as Atkins said recently the front office will pursue players that can help in the clubhouse, similar to what Eric Sogard brought to the team this past season. Moustakas’ pop would play well in the Rogers Centre, as would his place in the lineup, slotted after Bichette and Guerrero. Worst case scenario, Moustakas can be used as a trade chip down the road if he’s brought in and continues to produce.

OF - Marcell Ozuna

Age: 29

2019 Salary: $12.2 million

Draft pick compensation: Yes

After a breakout 2017 season with the Miami Marlins, Ozuna was part of the club’s selling spree that saw President Derek Jeter and the front office trade Giancarlo Stanton and Yelich. For his part, Ozuna landed in St. Louis with the Cardinals, and while he hasn’t been able to match those numbers, he’s been a productive outfielder with upside as a hitter.

Ozuna’s 2019 metrics (130 games)

Similar to Thames and Moustakas, the 29-year-old hits the ball hard. Very hard. In his second year with the Cardinals, Ozuna improved on his home run totals (23 to 29) finishing with an improved OPS and SLG. What stands out with Ozuna is his batted ball metrics.

Since 2017, Ozuna ranks 11th in the majors among qualified outfielders in hard contact (43.8 percent of his plate appearances). Thames, it should be noted, ranks fifth. Ozuna is also coming off a year in which he finished with a BABIP of .259 which indicates a bit of bad luck, and though his strikeouts were up a bit, he also walked at a career rate (11.3 BB%).

It’s reasonable, then, to think that Ozuna could have a better year and hit more home runs if he plays around with, or looks into his launch angle. Defensively he’s more of a question mark but isn’t as bad as pundits make him out to be (he graded out as above-average in left field). There is already reported interest from the Blue Jays brass, and though it could result in the club trading Gurriel or Hernandez to make room for him, Ozuna would certainly help this team score runs, and put more bodies in Rogers Centre seats.

OF - Shogo Akiyama

Age: 31

2019 salary: N/A (Japan Pacific League)

Draft pick compensation: No

Multiple reports have the Blue Jays showing interest in two Japanese players - Yoshitomo Tsutsuogo and Akiyama. The former is younger (27) but big-bodied and profiles more as a slugger and high-strikeout guy. Akiyama is the opposite. A bit older, plays centre field, hits for average and rarely strikes out.

At this point, if it were up to me, Akiyama is the one I would covet. This Blue Jays regime hasn’t had much luck with Japanese-born players but the interest is certainly there (the front office reportedly made a strong pitch to left-hander Yusei Kikuchi before he signed with Seattle last winter). Akiyama could get an immediate look playing in centre field with an inside track as lead-off hitter.

Since 2017, playing in the Japan Pacific League, Akiyama has hit .316/.398/.513 with an average of 36 doubles and 23 home runs per season. He’s also been remarkably durable appearing in 143 games in each of the past five years. This doesn’t guarantee success, as Japanese players don’t always translate their production overseas to the majors, but there is no denying his ability with the bat. He’s an intriguing fit and because the Blue Jays have money to throw around and not much to lose, Akiyama is a player worth keeping an eye on.

Outfielder Nick Castellanos was an offensive star down the stretch for the Chicago Cubs in 2019.

OF - Nick Castellanos

Age: 27

2019 salary: $9.9 million

Draft pick compensation: No

It’s not often a player of Castellanos’ age hits the open market. He was the Tigers lone source of value in 2019, and after being acquired by the Cubs, absolutely took off, hitting .321/.356/.646 and 16 home runs with his new team. Not bad for a guy slated for free agency.

Castellanos is a sturdy hitter who stays on the field. Since 2016, his combined 9.7 fWAR ranks among the league’s top-30 in qualified outfielders, and his 121 wRC+ is in the same ballpark as Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, and Charlie Blackmon - all productive offensive players. Castellanos is weighed down by his defense as he grades out as one of the weaker outfielders in baseball. With that in mind, it’s amazing that Castellanos has been so valuable, which speaks to how good he is at the plate.

Since 2017, his combined Win Probability Added is strong (7.59) and, like others before him on this list, Castellanos makes a ton of hard contact. He’s also ranked among the league’s top 10 in terms of xwOBA and xSLG, and his exit velocity has remained consistently high.

For the Blue Jays, there’s a whole lot to like with Castellanos’ profile, even if he doesn’t move the needle defensively. He would be an ideal designated hitter, and that’s why I think he might have a harder time getting a long-term contract. Teams aren’t exactly clamoring for bat-first guys that can’t defend (J.D. Martinez is an exception), so he’s more likely to land in the American League. For Toronto, that should be more than enough at this stage of their rebuild. They can offset his poor defense by signing or trading for a true centre fielder, and slotting Castellanos in as their everyday DH, with the occasional start in a corner outfield spot.

Statistics courtesy: FanGraphs, Statcast, Spotrac, Baseball Reference, Sportsnet