Shushkewich: No sophomore slump for Guardians' Smith
Right-hander Cade Smith (Abbotsford, B.C.) has been outstanding out of the bullpen for the Cleveland Guardians in his sophomore MLB season.
June 19, 2025
By Tyson Shushkewich
Canadian Baseball Network
In this day and age of data analytics and video breakdowns, major league players have to adapt every week.
Struggle with the curveball at the plate?
Guess what’s coming down the pipeline.
Do you throw a fastball when you’re down in the count?
Guess what the batter is sitting on.
With iPads in the dugout and data searches at everyone’s fingertips, it can be hard for any player to break through and establish themselves on a big league roster.
However, nobody told Cleveland Guardians’ reliever Cade Smith (Abbotsford, B.C.) that baseball was supposed to be a hard game.
After earning a spot in the Guardians' bullpen out of 2024 spring training, Smith established himself as one of the top relievers not just in the American League but across Major League Baseball.
Through 74 outings, he posted a 1.91 ERA and an even more impressive 1.40 FIP. He struck out 103 batters in 75 1/3 innings and allowed just one home run and 16 earned runs all season. His performance helped Cleveland’s relief corps rank high in numerous statistical categories. The B.C. product finished the campaign with the highest fWAR among all relievers (2.7) and finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Once you were sitting on the heater, that's when he would pull the strings, crossing batters up with a splitter or a sweeper. The fastball and splitter produced an xBA and a wOBA under the .300 mark, and even if the opposing batter knew the fastball was coming, it still generated a 30.4% whiff rate and a 31.4% put-away rate and to the tune of a +24 run value. It was practically unhittable and Smith commanded his arsenal with precision, producing a 5.9% walk rate that earned him a 2.0 BB/9 mark.
The Canuck put up video game worthy numbers in his debut season.
This campaign was going to be a new test for the right-hander. Opposing teams had seen him before; he wasn’t a mystery anymore. Smith crafted a name for himself as being a strikeout-heavy arm that relied heavily on his fastball to get you out, whether it was via the punch out or the ground ball.
Opposing teams had the data on his fastball and his arm slot. They had the numbers on how he gave up a ton of hits on either his first pitch or when he went into an 0-1 count (.943 and 1.434 OPS, respectively). Rival clubs knew that if he got you into a 0-2 count, you were done for (.113/.160./141 slash line with just eight hits through 71 at-bats in that situation).
The sophomore slump has the potential to rear its ugly head when other clubs can plan accordingly. However, nobody told Smith that, and he continues to treat every outing like it’s another night with MLB the Show on ‘rookie mode’.
Through 33 outings with the Guardians this season, Smith has crafted a 2.25 ERA and a 1.19 FIP through 32 innings. He is regularly employed in high pressure situations and the Canadian continues to be unfazed in the biggest moments, authoring a 1.063 WHIP and a 180 ERA+.
In terms of fWAR, he ranks second among bullpen arms with his 1.5 tally (sitting just 0.2 behind Padres’ hurler Robert Suarez), and his 13.5 K/9 rate sits seventh amongst MLB relievers. The only blemish on his record is an outing against the Washington Nationals back on May 6 when he allowed four earned runs through 2/3 of an inning. For the season, he has permitted just 24 hits, 10 walks, eight earned runs and he has yet to surrender a home run.
Smith also said screw it to the analytics and continues to dish out the four-seam fastball at a 69.3% clip, with opposing bats still struggling to find any form of contact. The four-seamer ranks with a +8 value, and he’s seeing an even stronger whiff rate with his primary offering (32.0%). No new pitch offering, no increase in his splitter and sweeper pitches. He attacks with the fastball and dares you to try and hit it, and wins the battle a majority of the time (a 6.8 H/9 confirms that).
While there is still over half of the campaign remaining, the early indications are trending in the right direction for Cade Smith to continue to establish himself as one of the most effective relievers in the big leagues for a second straight season.
He doesn’t receive the same fanfare as some of the game’s biggest closers – setup men don’t normally get the same recognition - but make no mistake, Smith is proving that he belongs in the big leagues, and he’s daring opposing teams to try and prove him wrong.