Marlins had their choice of Lansing Three...and picked Nicolino?
By: Ian Hunter
Canadian Baseball Network
It was a series of trades that changed the landscape for three baseball franchises. These deals vaulted the Toronto Blue Jays into a World Series contender, they set in motion a fire sale with the Miami Marlins, and it also set in motion at mini rebuild for the New York Mets.
Of course, it’s the 2012 blockbuster trades between the Blue Jays, Marlins and Mets that saw a great deal of superstars change teams, prospects change hands, and salary shift between franchises.
No one could have foreseen what was to happen next; how the Blue Jays wouldn’t be a playoff contender for two more seasons and everyone from that trade save for R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole would be gone. That the New York Mets would soon become World Series contenders. And that the Miami Marlins would more or less be in the exact same place.
But it’s fun to think what could’ve been if those trades may have been a little different. Namely, the pivotal young arms involved in the trade known as the “Lansing Three”.
A recent report by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald suggests the Miami Marlins had their pick of one of the Blue Jays’ coveted young pitchers back in December of 2012: Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez or Justin Nicolino.
The Marlins chose Nicolino. The Blue Jays opted to deal Syndergaard as part of the trade to bring over Dickey from the Mets. And in one fell swoop, Aaron Sanchez was the lone wolf from the group formerly known as the “Lansing Three”.
While all three pitchers have cracked the big leagues in the three-plus years since the trade, Nicolino has experienced the most difficulty at the Major League level. He was most recently dispatched back to the minor leagues, while Sanchez is anchoring the Blue Jays starting rotation and Syndergaard has become one of MLB’s most electric starters.
In hindsight, the Marlins may have been better off with Sanchez or Syndergaard, but one can hardly blame them for choosing Nicolino. At the time of the Blue Jays’ trades with the Marlins and Mets, Nicolino was arguably the most promising of the three prospects.
Heading into the 2012 season, Nicolino, Sanchez and Syndergaard ranked fifth, sixth and seventh in the Blue Jays’ Top 10 Prospects list. At that point, any one of them seemed like a sure bet to become a future superstar.
The Marlins surely did their homework on all three players, and surely the Blue Jays had their motivations to keep Sanchez and dangle Nicolino and Syndergaard as trade bait. At the time of the Marlins blockbuster trade, Nicolino was arguably further along in his development than Sanchez or Syndergaard.
In retrospect, if the Marlins truly had their pick of the “Lansing Three”, the Marlins had a 66% chance to hit the jackpot when selecting one of Nicolino, Sanchez or Syndergaard.
The fact that two of the “Lansing Three” are enjoying success at the Major League level is pretty remarkable in itself. All to often, highly-touted prospects fail to come to fruition. So much can happen to a prospect between A ball and the Major Leagues; things like major injuries and struggles prevent any number of pitchers from even cracking a 25-man roster.
Nicolino, Sanchez and Syndergaard finished the 2012 season at Low-A ball in Lansing. But unfortunately for the Marlins, they chose incorrectly. Fortunately for the Blue Jays and Mets, they chose the right arms to keep.
It’s still incredibly young in these pitchers’ careers, and by no means is Syndergaard a certified ace just yet, nor is Sanchez guaranteed to be a rotation figurehead moving forward. That also means Nicolino can’t be regarded as a “bust” quite yet.
But two franchises walked out of those blockbuster trades with some high ceiling arms in Sanchez and Syndergaard.